Emissions Increases for 50+ Years, Except for Economic Downturns. THE ONUS IS ON US.
The UN Climate Summit and Climate Week NYC concluded in New York, but without any timely action on carbon emissions. We’re back to a wing and prayer. “Electrification” and “Clean Energy” are still the current buzzwords, “Adaptation” and “Remediation” the plans, and scrubbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere—if even feasible—will be our future cure-all. Unfortunately, annual emissions have increased every year for more than 50 years, except during global recessions—a noteworthy correlation. The COVID economic slowdown cut global emissions by 1.8 billion metric tons in 2020, more than a five percent decrease. The 1980 recession accounted for a cumulative savings of more than six percent for three years relative to 1979. Emissions decreased in the recessions of 1974, 1991 and 2009 as well. The tie between consumer consumption and emissions is undeniable—especially for the carbon footprint of purchases and activity. A correlation to think about.
While global warming and climate change continue at alarming rates, energized by the earth’s heat re-radiated from atmospheric carbon gases, plugging the hole in our sinking boat seems a low priority. While electrification and the use of clean energy progress, we are far from reducing annual emissions—far from slowing the rate of global warming and its impact on the climate. Nearly 36 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide were released to the atmosphere from energy generation in 2024, more than half from merely three countries—China, the United States and India. With Russia, Japan, Indonesia and Iran. That amounts to nearly two-thirds. But every other country contributed less than two percent each. So, to make significant cuts in annual emissions in a meaningful timeframe—we know where to look. And for perspective, 2024 emissions were thirty percent greater than 2004, and more than double those of 1974.
There was some good news from the UN Climate Summit, announced by China’s President Xi Jinping. China pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent—by 2035—via a six-fold increase in solar and wind power relative to 2020. If achieved, the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitter could cut 1 billion metric tons annually by 2035. Truly good news, but not enough soon enough, to thwart a 2°C warmer planet in the next decade relative to pre-industrial. However, the International Energy Agency’s Global Energy Review 2025, reported that “Clean energy accounted for 80% of total growth in electricity generation in 2024”—meaning from renewable sources and nuclear power. This is more good news, and sounds impressive—but pales in comparative magnitude to the ‘total’ electricity generated last year. Growth in clean electricity barely exceeded 3 percent of the total generated, while nearly 60 percent of the world’s total electricity was still generated from fossil fuel—a third of it from coal. And sadly, electricity was less than a fifth of the world’s Total Energy Supply. Eighty-seven percent of the Total Energy Supply was generated from fossil fuel. No really good news there either. Unfortunately, this brings us back to our current buzzwords to measures success—Electrification and Clean Energy.
Regrettably, global electrification and carbon-free power are decades from completing that task. According to EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, the 12-month period through August 2025 has already exceeded 1.5°C, and if the 30-year warming trend continues, global warming could reach the official 1.5°C mark as early as May 2029. To slow the pace of warming, annual emission must stop increasing, bucking the 50-year trend. Achieving that feat through electrification and clean energy alone requires enormous resources and financing, that lack consistent political will. It’s time we face up to the need for near-term action. While we battle global warming with long-term projects and plans for adaptation and remediation, we fail to defend the front line—the upfront emissions that impact us now, rapidly warming the planet toward 2°C.
Fortunately, the carbon footprint of the building and construction sector came to light over the last five years, notably for materials like cement, concrete, steel, glass, insulation and asphalt. National and regional Buy Clean programs encourage production of low-carbon materials for construction, and encourage low-carbon building designs. Nevertheless, the general public is oblivious to its own role in global warming, being the economic driver of final demand. The onus is on all of us—through our power of choice—to influence our supply chain’s manufacturing emissions, through product and services selection.
The battle to curb global warming in a timely manner resides with consumers—the largest market shaping force on the planet. The public needs to know. Our current challenge is to buy time to decarbonize, to reduce emissions via educated consumption. One challenge remains to accomplish this: How to reduce consumption without provoking a recession. And that’s what we need to figure out.
The onus is on us.
